Macro Update – Gold, Bitcoin and the Gigantic Global Debt Bubble


by Michael Krieger, Liberty Blitzkrieg:

Today’s the first day in a long time financial markets appear willing to at least consider the reality of the geopolitical situation on the ground for what it is, as opposed to what most people would like it to be. As I’ve noted for months, the “trade war” is just one battle in a much larger, increasingly unstable struggle between the U.S. and China for global power and leverage to shape the next paradigm of world history.

A failure to appreciate how big this really is explains why investors have been so willing to swallow unrealistic happy talk from both sides. The risk that needs to be discounted in the market isn’t a risk of higher tariffs, but the risk of WW3. The U.S. and China were never going to sign a trade deal and blissfully return to the ways things were. That world is over. We now find ourselves in the very early days of a historic struggle to influence the future.


Back in January, I wrote a twitter thread centered around gold which ended up becoming very popular. It’s been around five months since then, so I want to provide a quick update.

I had outlined four reasons why I had become increasingly bullish.

The first three factors remain in play as far as I’m concerned, but the trading action has been pitiful in 2019 to-date as equities have soared. Nevertheless, I find it quite interesting that despite the S&P500 hitting a new record high a couple of weeks ago, the market in gold terms never really came that close.

As you can see, the SPY/GLD ratio only got as high as around 2.44, or 6% lower than the September peak of 2.60 despite a gigantic snapback rally. This might mean absolutely nothing, but I doubt it.

Let’s now revisit some of my price forecasts.

The price action has been less positive than I thought thus far, but I always maintained 2019 would be a slog. We still have six weeks to clear $1,350-$1,370, so we’ll see. If not, I still expect a breakout in early 2H19 as the reality of the global economic and geopolitical situation becomes impossible to ignore.


Bitcoin’s been on a tear recently, but I want to highlight something far more important than price action. This past Friday, Rep. Brad Sherman of California uttered something I never expected a sitting politician to publicly admit about the real function of the USD and its central role in U.S. imperialism.

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