by Gary Christenson, Miles Franklin:
Jim Sinclair: “The party is over in mid-2019.”
Jim Rogers: “I see the worst stock market correction of your lifetime coming.”
Gary Christenson: “The fireworks will start in May—June 2019.”
Wall Street Cheerleaders: The bull market will continue for another year, probably many years. Long live QE, Fed stimulus, stock market rallies, FAANG stocks, blah blah blah.
A BOXING ANALOGY.
In the green corner from Wall Street, with over ten years of record stock market advances, we present “The Greatest Bull Market Ever.” Cheers…
In the red corner from middle America, hounded by decades of ever-increasing debt and consumer price inflation, we present “Fireworks in May and June.” Boos…
The Bull Market Scenario – Courtesy of Wall Street:
- The S&P 500 Index fell to a low of 667 in March 2009, over ten years ago, and recently rose to 2,954. The decade-long advance has been consistent and strong. Unemployment is low, the Fed is accommodative and “official inflation” is tiny. If the Fed does not raise interest rates, more liquidity will flow into the market and stock prices will rise further.
- A Presidential election will occur in 18 months—the silly season has begun. The sitting President wants to avoid a recession, stock market crash and higher interest rates because they will kill his reelection chances. He will support further market levitation.
This writer doesn’t buy the “strong economy” story. However, it’s tough to argue against massive liquidity injections and new debt levitating the market. Further, this writer thought the S&P 500 index peaked in 2015 and would fall thereafter. It fell but reversed higher. The Fed and banking cartel levitated the market, with trillions of new debts and the stock market climbed to new highs.
THE FIREWORKS IN MAY AND JUNE SCENARIO—A REVERSAL IS DUE:
- There are many indications that stock indices have peaked or are reaching tops. This is an abbreviated list.
- Margin debt is extreme and has peaked. If history is a guide, 2019 will print a multi-year top in stock indices.
- Cheap and abundant debt enabled stock buybacks that boosted stock prices without improving company profitability or efficiency. The debt must be repaid or rolled. Unproductive debt is a drag on current and future earnings.
- A second U.S. aircraft carrier strike group is threatening Iran. Wars are destructive, costly, inflationary, and often parallel stock market declines. What is the real reason for mid-East wars?
- Pension plans are underfunded by several trillions of dollars. The coming recession will hurt those plans and increase shortfalls. This leads to angry retirees and reduced pension checks.
- Many ratios and charts show an over-extended market “searching for a pin” to pop the stock market and debt bubbles.
- The Elliott Wave people believe the five wave-count is complete and a major correction will follow.
- The sitting President wants to be reelected – unlikely if the market crashes or the economy tips into a recession. Anti-Trump forces will be happy to crash the market to kill his election prospects.
- Michael Snyder listed 19 facts that show the economy is NOT booming. A few:
- S. auto sales were down 6.1% in April, the worst decline in 8 years.
- Mortgage applications have fallen four consecutive weeks.
- Luxury home sales have crashed in many cities.
- Farm incomes are falling. The floods, tariffs and bankruptcies hurt. Food prices will rise.
- The Retail Apocalypse has struck. Thousands of retail stores are closed, and 6,000 more stores will close in 2019.
- Credit Card charge-offs at U.S. banks have risen to the highest level in nearly 7 years.
CHARTS THAT SHOW DANGEROUS CONDITIONS:
- The NASDAQ 100 to S&P 500 ratio is high, like before the crash in 2000. The NASDAQ advance is narrow and frothy.
- Commodity prices are too low compared to the S&P 500 Index. They will correct higher.
- The silver to gold ratio has fallen to multi-decade lows. Expect silver to correct higher and rapidly compared to gold, debt, and the S&P 500 Index.
- The Russell 2000 Index has not confirmed the highs in the Dow or the NASDAQ. The advance since 2016 has been narrow and frothy –a few high-flying stocks pulled major indexes higher.
- Silver prices are at a two-decade low compared to the NASDAQ 100.
- The NASDAQ 100 Index has broken a weekly uptrend line and appears ready to fall much farther. The same is true for the DOW and S&P 500.
- Corporate debt to GDP ratio shows a credit cycle peak and probability of recession.
Margin Debt has peaked. Look out below.
- Perhaps the Fed liquidity pump, inexpensive interest rates, “happy talk,” tweets, and propaganda will extend the levitation several years longer. The stock market could rise into November 2020, but I doubt it.
- Many charts, ratios, and patterns show the U.S. economy has reached peaks in the credit cycle and stock market. The next major move will probably be downward. Look out below.
- The derivative monster may wake from its ten-year slumber. Deutsche Bank closed May 10 at $7.87, off 93% from its 2007 high. Risk of a derivative crisis is rising, as shown by collapsing Deutsche Bank stock prices.
- A risk-reward analysis favored paper assets, leverage, ever-increasing debt, fiscal and monetary nonsense, and Wall Street cheerleaders for most of a decade. The above graphs suggest the risk-reward analysis is turning away from debt-based assets toward real assets and commodities.