2019: The Crackup Begins


by Karl Denninger, Market Ticker:

Last year I did not do much of a “2018” prediction post, and with good reason.

Nobody gives a crap.

But I did say that Trump’s tax cuts were going to massively accelerate the deficit ramp job.  I was dead-on with that; what’s even worse is that Trump knows damn well it’s going to blow up in everyone’s face but he doesn’t care because he thinks he’ll be out of office first.

Federal debt expansion last fiscal year was a stunning 6.2% of the economy.  To put this in perspective to have a “neutral” Fed Funds rate it would have to be at least 6.2%.  It isn’t, of course, and Trump has been throwing a hissy fit over the fact that rates aren’t lower than they are and is now issuing thinly-veiled threats that he might fire the head of the Fed.

Whether he can is a matter of some dispute, as the law says he can only do so for “cause”.  What’s cause?  Good question.

But, here we are a year later and nobody gives a crap.

Never mind that The Fed itself says that some 40% of Americans couldn’t fork up $400 in an emergency, such as for a car repair, without going into debt or selling something — right here and now.  The bad news of course is that “forced sales” are never at advantageous prices or reasonable terms; most people wind up hocking something or taking a “payday” loan at ridiculous interest rates from which they often never escape.

Nobody connects the first with the second, yet that’s why it happens.  We went from a society in the 1950s-1970s where one person in a family of four could go off to work and make enough for everyone else to be ok — with health care, food, transportation and housing.  In the last 30 years health care has expanded in price on an “inflation adjusted” basis by five hundred percent or more and property taxes (which simply reflect the health care expenses of government employees) have more than doubled in the last decade in many areas, resulting in an outrageous increase in the cost of housing.  Then there’s student loans; college prices have gone up about as fast as health care; you used to be able to spin pizzas to pay for school including tuition, room, board, books and fees but that’s impossible now.

As I look around me in the store and on the streets all I see are more and more people who can’t see their pubic hair (or what’s under it when they shave it off) when standing straight-up in the shower.  The majority of Americans over the age of 18 are metabolically compromised and a shocking percentage of kids under 10 are too.  More than a few could use their belly roll as a concealed carry holster.  The media just “celebrated” the birth of the largest baby in Texas history, never mentioning that the most-likely reason for such a giant baby is uncontrolled diabetes in the mother — and that both she and her husband are the size of refrigerators, leading one to question exactly how did they have procreative sex?  That’s not proof but it sure fits the pattern — and guess who’s going to get the bill for all three of these jokers in a few years?


I’ve dealt with some family crap this year and picked up 10lbs doing it — and I know exactly how too.  They’re called carbs and they’re a slow poison.  Nope, nope and no more of that ****.  Don’t kid yourself — there’s no way around the facts on this, nor do the lies become less of a lie if someone who has some sort of bull**** “degree” enunciates them at you, no matter how often.

The problem with playing the “feel good” binge consumption game, whether it be carbs, booze or drugs, is the same: Eventually, if you don’t cut that crap out, you have one too many and die — and long before that you crank out bills that you’ll then try to send to someone else — either before or after they bankrupt you.

My sister did exactly that this year; rather than deal with what she had going on in her head and whatever else when my Mom passed she blew what she had in her hand in terms of funds on booze and drugs, and then apparently hocked something or another to get even more.  That was one too many and now she’s in an urn.

No, I’m not sorry or even sad.  She had been doing that crap for decades and had been warned more times than anyone can count about what was going to happen both by people like myself and medical professionals.  Never mind more than two years of knowing Mom was not well, would eventually pass as everyone eventually does and having a free place to both live and all expenses paid while collecting more than $1,000 a month in SSDI, forcibly stolen from every person who has ever worked and paid FICA tax in America.  The total amount she socked back was not only zero she was scheming upwards of a grand a month soaking my mother’s remaining funds in addition to that SSDI, all feeding addictions of one sort or another.  Not all that long ago she did a nice stint in the hospital after back surgery that no doctor should have ever done but heh, Medicare was willing to pay for it (due to being on SSDI for more than 2 years as a result of drinking and drugging herself half-to-death) — whether said surgery goes well or very poorly.

It went very poorly and damn near killed her.  But she didn’t get the bill (nor does her estate) so who gives a crap, right?

You and I got to write the check for that bull**** and we have already had it taken from us with a gun up our nose by a bunch of crooked doctors and crooked politicians.  It’s not like anyone has to foot the bill for their own actions anymore; just whine loudly enough about this or that and the government will shove a gun up everyone’s nose and make them pay for whatever you demand.

Of course she was told then, over a year ago, by the docs to cut the crap — and the booze.  It wasn’t the first time just like the market crash in 2008 wasn’t the first time we’ve seen what happens when you blow financial bubbles.  Spring of 2000 anyone?  I watched that ****show start in a a nice hotel room at the SanDestin Hilton on CNBC in the spring of 2000.

I chuckled on “The Naz blows up” morning, turned the TV off and went back to sleep.

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