by Michael Snyder, End Of The American Dream:
Americans from the age of 18 to the age of 29 are voting in record numbers in many states that offer early voting. Traditionally, young people have not turned out in high numbers for midterm elections, but that has apparently changed in a major way this time around. In fact, a massive increase in early voting by young people is one of the reasons why Nancy Pelosi is already declaring victory. Young adults are far more liberal than the population as a whole, and they overwhelmingly tend to vote for Democrats. The problem for Democrats in previous elections has been actually getting them to go vote, but in 2018 large numbers of young people appear to be highly motivated.
The statistics that are coming in are staggering. In Texas and Nevada, early voting by young adults is five times higher (500%) than it was four years ago…
In some states, especially those with hot races, the increase in turnout is staggering. In Texas, 332,000 voters under the age of 30 have cast ballots already, up nearly five fold from the 2014 midterms. In Nevada, the 25,000 young voters who have cast a ballot is also five times higher than in the same period four years ago.
Georgia’s young voter turnout is four times higher than it was in 2014. In Arizona, three times as many younger voters are turning up.
And since they are so new to the process, a lot of these young voters are voting for the very first time…
“Voters under the age of 30, relative to their ’14 turnout, are outperforming every other group,” said Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist whose firm TargetSmart tracks the early vote. “It’s not just like a presidential year surge where you’re getting younger voters who only vote in presidentials coming out in a midterm. A lot of these young people are voting in their first election period.”
One recent survey found that Americans from the age of 18 to the age of 29 favor Democrats over Republicans this election cycle by a 66 percent to 32 percent margin. Needless to say, that is very bad news for Republicans.
Nearly all of the polls that we usually see are focused on “likely voters”, and those models assume that young adults will not turn out in high numbers.
Since extremely large numbers of “unlikely voters” appear to be voting, that means that we could see some huge surprises on election night.
And it isn’t just young people that are voting in unusual numbers this cycle. In Texas, “vote rates have more than doubled” for African-Americans and Hispanics…
In Texas, young voter turnout is currently up 508 per cent, while African-American and Hispanic – both traditionally Democratic constituencies – vote rates have more than doubled.
I still think that he will win, but those numbers could potentially mean big trouble for Ted Cruz.
In addition, women are voting at a significantly higher rate than men in a number of key states…
Women have been more likely than men to cast ballots early so far this year: they make up 56 percent of early voters so far in Georgia; 54 percent in Texas, Florida, and Tennessee; and 53 percent in Nevada, according to an analysis by CNN and the data company Catalist.
Given the gender gap between the parties, there’s a temptation to interpret this as good news for Democrats. But it’s too early to say for sure.
We’ll see what all of these numbers ultimately mean on election night.
But right now the Republicans should be very nervous.