from Silver Doctors:
SD Outlook: The storm is brewing. Will the relative calm last all week, or are those fast moving storm clouds? Here’s some insight…
There is a flurry of activity on the events calendar this week.
We start the week with some housing data and Fed speeches:
Granted, those are lesser of the Fed Heads.
But come Wednesday, the data really starts getting important with the hot topic of the year – trade. Of course, there will be no trade surplus.
The question on everybody’s mind: Is the trade deficit shrinking, growing, or staying the same?
I think Wednesday’s trade data will be more important than most, especially since the trade wars have been such an intense issue in 2018.
Understand this caveat: With all the statistics, we have seen trends where the numbers are massaged to paint a rosier picture than what should be, and that’s giving them the benefit of this doubt. Many would argue the official statistics are outright statistical lies.
That will be something to think about when the Bureau of Economic
Lies Analysis releases the May 2018 PCE report on Friday:
On Friday, we will be getting that all important wage and inflation data.
In fact, PCE, Personal Consumption and Expenditures, is the Fed’s inflation gauge for when they spew out their 2% nonsense.
Now, the Fed strips out the costs of food and energy and use the “core” PCE statistic.
The consensus is calling for 1.9% growth in Core PCE, year over year.
How bout that?
Close to, but not quite at the Fed’s inflation goal.
Call it inflation bliss.
Bottom line, there’s market moving events all week.
I didn’t even go over Durable Goods or GDP, but here’s the point: Where traders parse the data as if it were valid, looking for clues as to the direction of the economy and the markets, the cartel will use the cover of the data dumps to strong arm the markets.
So be prepared for it.
The gold to silver ratio looks to be pointing down again:
The sideways downside action all year in gold and silver has been agonizing, and while we’re still seeing a drop in the ratio for the wrong reasons, once these rallies take off in earnest, the number of ounces of silver it takes to buy one single ounce of gold could really start dropping.
There are fun and exciting times ahead for gold and silver investors, but we’ve first got to get through this week.
Call this week in gold “A Tale of Two Gold Rallies”.
Now, I could be way off on the direction this week, and my latest call is still a time call, looking for the rally to begin in earnest on July 9th..
Additionally, we could simply go sideways this week, which is highly likely as it is as the cartel can strong arm the “market” on low volume.
But the cartel not only is interested in suppressing the price of gold and silver, but they also make money off of it, which is why I think the first type of rally will be the likely scenario this week.
The first type of rally, which I think will be the case in gold this week, is called a “relief rally”.
If we get a relief rally, I would be looking for gold to get back into the $1290 – $1300 range.
I consider this the likely scenario because it will give the false impression that we’re making progress, and that will allow the cartel to come in and not just whack the price but also the sentiment week after next.
The second type of rally, which is still possible, is a “break-out rally” in gold.
To have this type of rally, there needs to be some major economical or geo-political event that would cause people to come rushing into gold.
I don’t think this scenario is likely, because we’d really need to be staring down $1350 by the end of this week, and I don’t see that happening.