from Silver Doctors:
SD Outlook: If last week was difficult for gold & silver, it just became even more so. Here’s the details…
There’s difficulty on the fundamental front.
On Wednesday, we get double-smash potential:
We have the May FOMC Announcement (no press conference this month), and we have the private sector jobs report (ADP).
If the Fed is hawkish and actually hikes, that is definitely not priced into the markets, and although gold & silver rise in price in a rising rate environment, the ESF and the Fed would use the cover of their hawkishness to smash the metals.
Interestingly, CME Group has even increased the probability of a rate hike, even if only slightly:
That’s just one measure for probability of rate hikes, other agencies have their own measures.
While most analysts and financial pundits are ready to write of May as a “hold”, we’ll just have to see. The question would be, is this Fed under Powell any different than the Fed under Yellen?
We’ll come closer to answering that question Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. EST.
As far as the ADP jobs report, well, it sets the stage for the official April BLS Jobs Report on Friday:
We’ll see just how awesome the government tells us everything is, conveniently before the open.
And, for good measure, call it a second double-smash potential, if anything sits uneasy with the markets, and I’m talking about the equities markets here, then NY Fed Head Dudley will be engaging in some good old-fashioned jawboning in the afternoon on Friday to sweet talk the markets into the close on the week.
Does this mean we’ve got ourselves a double-double-smash potential this week?
Dudley is the outgoing NY Fed Head (to be replace by Williams of San Fran), so who knows, maybe he’ll throw a curve-ball into the markets in a C.Y.A scenario?
I’m not counting on it.
The first rule of Fed Club is you never talk bad about Fed Club.
Bottom line on the fundamental front: The scheduled of economic events are not on our side, but the side of the manipulators, however, with politics and geo-politics flaring up again, that is the big unknown this week.