Optimist or Pessimist on Silver

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by Gary Christenson, Deviant Investor:

DEMAND: Silver demand increases every year and will push prices higher. Our modern world depends upon electronics, computers, missiles, fighter jets, cruise missiles, technology, communication devices and more. Each new application adds to silver demand. Medical applications, electric cars and photovoltaic solar panels need more silver and will boost demand.

DEVALUATION: Silver prices rise because the dollar is devalued by the Federal Reserve and U.S. government deficit spending. Dollars buy less each year so prices for silver, food, candy bars, political payoffs and military hardware (everything but computers and televisions) rise in price.

Dollar devaluation will continue as long as we use unbacked debt based fiat currencies and governments borrow to cover excessive spending.

MINING COSTS: Silver mining requires a large expenditure of energy, often aggravated by difficult conditions and declining ore concentrations. More expensive energy increases the price silver miners need to stay in business.

Energy costs rise, on average, because dollars are devalued and crude oil is more expensive to extract. Yes, crude oil prices spiked in 2008 to almost $150 and then fell below $40 five months later. They rose to over $100 in June 2014 and then fell under $30 in January 2016. Energy prices are volatile (and manipulated) but on average they rise because the dollars used to buy them are worth less.

The Public Will Buy More Silver Because:

Individuals need to protect their assets and retirements by investing in something real. One excellent choice is silver.
Individuals realize the financial system is “rigged” to extract wealth from existing currency units – your savings and investments. Silver will help protect those assets from devaluation.
Printing currency units does NOT create wealth, but it will devalue existing dollars and increase silver prices.
Ever-increasing debt does NOT create wealth, but it creates financial trauma and higher silver prices.

RATIOS AND GRAPHS:

The St. Louis Federal Reserve publishes data for U.S. total credit market debt. Plot ever-rising debt on a log scale (exponential increases are a straight line) against annual silver prices (smoothed with a five year moving average) on a log scale. Debt increases with no hint it will ever decline. Silver prices move higher along with exponentially increasing debt.

The ratio of silver prices (times one trillion) to total credit market debt shows debt has increased more than silver prices. One should conclude the “powers-that-be” encourage debt and discourage silver.

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